The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 through Nov. 30.
A Northeastern researcher says the forecast of six to 10 hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph—including three to five major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher—only tells part of the story.
The traditional Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes on a 1 to 5 rating system based on maximum sustained wind speed, with a Category 5 bearing winds of at least 157 mph.
But as hurricanes intensify in severity, it might be time to rethink the rating system, says Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern distinguished professor of civil and environmental engineering.
“I agree with many meteorologists that the current way of categorizing hurricanes needs an overhaul,” he says.
“The current almost exclusive focus on wind speed does not place enough emphasis, for example, on the important flood-generating potential of hurricanes,” Ganguly says.
Hurricane Helene, which landed in September as a Category 4 hurricane, dumped more than 30 inches of rain on parts of the Southeastern U.S. and swept away children and grandparents, killing 176 people.
Hurricane winds have also grown in intensity, with Hurricane Milton in October intensifying in “explosive” fashion over the Gulf of Mexico, increasing wind speeds by 95 miles per hour to 180 miles per hour in a 24-hour period, according to the Florida Climate Center.
“Hurricanes are becoming stronger and intensifying quicker,” says Qin Jim Chen, professor of civil and environmental engineering and marine and environmental sciences. But he says the category of a hurricane is “not the most important factor regarding its impact.”
“A Category 1 hurricane can generate a storm surge in an estuary equivalent to the surge typically seen in a Category 3 hurricane making landfall on a straight coastline. Hurricane Isaac in 2012 is a good example,” Chen says.
“I do not think it is necessary to create a new category for the strongest storms because Category 5 hurricanes are already so destructive if they make landfall,” he says.
Why the 2025 forecast is above normal
“The busier hurricane season than average was predicted based on several factors,” including warmer sea temperatures than average in the Atlantic basin, Chen says.
“Warmer temperatures provide more energy to hurricanes,” he says.
Other factors influencing the forecast are the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon and expectations that the El Niño Southern Oscillation will be in a neutral phase, Ganguly says.
The monsoon is expected to shift northward and produce the type of tropical waves that “seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms,” NOAA says.
A neutral ENSO is expected to produce less of the wind shear that can rip apart hurricanes as they develop.
An average hurricane season sees seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
Prepare now for hurricane season
Ganguly says the hurricane season typically peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
But warming ocean temperatures and other aspects of climate change could change that timeline, as demonstrated in July by Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 4 to hit the Caribbean.
Ganguly says to prepare with NOAA’s hurricane season window of June 1 to Nov. 30 in mind, “while allowing for a greater level of preparedness in the earlier part of the hurricane season in addition to what is currently considered the peak season.”
“Resilience to hurricanes requires planning for the uncertainties, including probabilistic changes in the times of the hurricane season itself,” he says.
“People in vulnerable areas subject to hurricane impacts need to start preparing now,” Chen says.
Check with NOAA and local emergency management agencies about how to prepare, what to stock and when to evacuate, he says.
And as the devastation in the Asheville area of North Carolina last year shows, hurricane preparedness is important even for people living far from coastal areas.
“This year NOAA will provide new information and warnings about the rip current hazard and inland flooding for people living hundreds of miles away from hurricane landfall,” Chen says, adding that people should familiarize themselves with this new information.
Provided by Northeastern University
This story is republished courtesy of Northeastern Global News news.northeastern.edu.